Higher costs complicate holiday imports

Rising fuel prices and freight rates are causing strain to retailers that are already coping with new tariffs as the holiday shopping season approaches.

Freight costs surge amid geopolitical and labor challenges

DAT Freight and Analytics reported that in late July, fuel costs were 31% higher than a year earlier. Van rates rose about 29%, while flatbed charges increased 34.7%.

The spike is linked to higher fuel prices from the current Middle East conflict and a continuous shortage of trucking capacity. Steve Blough, chief supply chain strategist at Infios, noted a driver shortage that was worsened by stricter English‑language requirements introduced by the Trump administration in April.

Blough said the shortage limits the amount of freight that can move goods, raising rates across the board. “That’s one of the major concerns out there,” he said, “All of that raises the landed cost for everybody, and it’s difficult to predict.”

Brands shift focus from cost to certainty

Retailers are no longer pursuing the cheapest shipping option alone. Instead, they are using data‑analysis tools and AI forecasts to manage lead times, cost, and risk.

“They’re trying to figure out the optimal blend of, ‘Hey, I need to make sure I have this by September 1. If I look at my lead time, I’ve got to order it by this day,’” Blough explained, adding that early ordering can help avoid unexpected tariff or fuel surcharges.

Companies are also paying more attention to how quickly goods can reach shore and to improving traceability, which can protect them from sudden tariff changes or geopolitical disruptions.

Some brands are even considering air freight despite its raised price, because it can avoid inventory from being stranded when tariffs shift or fuel costs spike.

In the past, the cheapest carrier usually won the business, but now the whole supply chain—customs clearance, timing and cost stability—plays a larger role, according to Blough.

Predictability now drives decisions.

Overall, the combination of higher fuel costs, tighter trucking capacity and evolving tariff regimes is forcing retailers to rethink import strategies, placing a high focus on predictability as the holiday rush looms.