Shoppers Adapt Thanksgiving Plans to Rising Costs

Rising grocery costs are prompting 77% of U.S. Thanksgiving hosts and attendees to adjust their shopping strategies this year, though new NielsenIQ data reveal plans for an abundant holiday meal remain unchanged.

Staple Prices Rise Ahead of Holiday

Several Thanksgiving staples have become more expensive. NielsenIQ reports that cranberry sauce prices increased 15% and turkey breast rose 12% in the 52 weeks ending Sept. 5 compared to the previous year. Fruit juice saw a 6% increase, while green beans, carrots, soft drinks, dinner sausage, and appetizers each rose 4%. Pie crust prices actually decreased by 2%.

Budget pressures extend beyond grocery purchases. Consumer packaged goods inflation reached 2.6% in August, while overall inflation climbed to 3.4% due to higher gas prices. Consumer confidence dropped 8.4 points year over year, according to NIQ.

“Consumers want the same Thanksgiving they’ve always wanted: a table full of favorite foods, enough leftovers for the next day and a memorable experience with family and friends. The difference is that they’re working harder to make that happen,” explained Chris Costagli, VP of thought leadership and food and beverage insights lead at NIQ.

The trend toward resourcefulness is clear among participants. A NIQ survey of 2,017 respondents for Thanksgiving 2026 indicated that 36% will seek discounts, 32% will repurpose existing items, and 31% will carefully plan their menus due to food costs. Additionally, 21% will eliminate optional dishes, 21% will opt for lower-cost brands, 15% will purchase smaller amounts, 14% will buy larger or bulk packages, and 12% will serve reduced portions.

Shoppers Plan to Adjust Their Spending

Of those hosting or attending, 47% anticipate increased spending. Within this group, 39% attribute costs to higher prices, while 8% cite increased purchases or hosting activities. Twenty-four percent expect to spend the same, and 19% plan to reduce their expenditures.

“When consumers encounter double-digit price increases on staples like cranberry sauce or turkey breast, they’re often encouraged to become more flexible, whether that’s switching brands, purchasing private label alternatives, shopping promotions or reallocating spending elsewhere in the basket,” Costagli noted.

46% of respondents intend to purchase more store brands compared to last year, 46% expect no change, and 8% plan to buy fewer branded items.

“Side dishes, baking ingredients, canned vegetables, cranberry sauce, dairy and pantry staples are all natural opportunities for private label because they’re often purchased in larger quantities and play a supporting role in the meal,” Costagli said. “Categories that are viewed as central to family traditions, signature recipes or holiday indulgences may be more insulated, although even those categories are seeing greater private label consideration than in the past.”

He emphasized that this shift appears sustainable.

Participants have also identified areas to cut costs. Seventy-five percent of Thanksgiving attendees already know where they would reduce spending if necessary. Decorations, alcohol, and specialty foods face closer scrutiny, while fresh produce, beverages, and the main protein dish remain more protected.

Hosts and Guests Shop Differently

41% of Americans plan to host Thanksgiving this year. Compared to all respondents, hosts are more likely to come from higher-income households, live in larger families, have Gen Alpha children, and use GLP-1 medications. According to NIQ, they drive more purchasing decisions and influence greater holiday spending than the average shopper.

Consumers attending both host and guest roles are more likely to purchase prepared foods. Of this group, 73.3% are likely to buy grocery store prepared meals, compared with 27.7% of host-only shoppers and 28.1% of attendee-only participants.

“For many shoppers, the value of prepared foods isn’t avoiding cooking altogether—it’s avoiding the most time-intensive parts of holiday entertaining,” Costagli said. “The opportunity for retailers is to position prepared foods as a way to save time and reduce stress while still delivering a holiday experience that feels special.”

Plenty of Extra Food Will Be Prepared

Among hosts and attendees, 38% overcook to prevent shortages, and 36% prepare extra portions for leftovers. Just 2% would prefer no leftovers. More than one in four hosts say they waste more food at Thanksgiving than at a typical meal, and upper-income hosts expect to waste more than their middle- and lower-income counterparts.

Many have plans for the extra food. Forty-four percent plan to make leftover sandwiches or wraps, 40 percent will send food home with guests, 34 percent plan a next-day meal and 26 percent will freeze or vacuum-seal leftovers.

“If consumers are intentionally buying extra food, retailers can help them preserve it, repurpose it and extend its use,” Costagli said. “Storage products, meal-prep items, leftover recipe solutions, and cross-merchandised ingredients for second-day meals can all help retailers stay part of the consumer journey well beyond Thanksgiving dinner.”

“Retailers should focus less on selling products and more on delivering outcomes,” he said. “The focus shouldn’t simply be on offering the lowest price. It should be on helping shoppers feel that every item they put in their cart earned its place.”